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Prelims1 Bantamweight

Alex Soto vs Francisco Rivera

UFC on FUEL TV: Korean Zombie vs Poirier ·EagleBank Arena
Previous fight

Statlab take

baseline
Edge Confidence: High
Alex Soto
Francisco Rivera
60% 40%
Why
28
Age
Δ 2y
31
8-4-1
Career record
Δ 4 pp
11-8
L1
Current streak
L1
1
UFC fights in our DB
1

Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.

Statlab projections

Method classifier: 0.55 accuracy on 2083 fights
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Soto: 41 sig / 3 TD · Rivera: 68 sig / 0 TD
Alex Soto
Francisco Rivera
27
Sig strikes landed
25
35
Sig strikes attempted
41
35
Total strikes landed
52
0.9
Takedowns landed
1.0
1.8
Takedowns attempted
2.1
0.40
Knockdowns
0.20
122s
Control time
146s
Method
Decision
22%
KO/TKO
43%
Submission
35%

Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).

Red corner
L1

Alex Soto

"Extremo"
8-4-1
Career record
Height
68"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
28
In our database 1 fight · 0-1
Last 1
L UFC 139: Shogun vs Henderson
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Blue corner
L1

Francisco Rivera

"Cisco"
11-8 (1 NC)
Career record
Height
68"
Reach
70"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
31
In our database 1 fight · 0-1
Last 1
L The Ultimate Fighter: Team Lesn…
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