Statlab take
baseline
Toss-up
Confidence: High
Conor Heun
Ryan Couture
48%
52%
Why
33
Age
Δ 4y
30
10-5
Career record
Δ 4 pp
12-5
W1
Current streak
W1
2
UFC fights in our DB
4
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 3
Heun: 36 sig / 3 TD ·
Couture: 74 sig / 2 TD
Conor Heun
Ryan Couture
35
Sig strikes landed
47
93
Sig strikes attempted
96
59
Total strikes landed
59
2.3
Takedowns landed
1.0
5.2
Takedowns attempted
2.0
0.00
Knockdowns
0.50
223s
Control time
91s
Method
Decision
62%
KO/TKO
20%
Submission
19%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W1
Conor Heun
"Hurricane"
10-5
Career record
Height
70"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
33
In our database
2 fights · 1-1
Last 2
W
Strikeforce - Overeem vs. Werdum
—
L
Strikeforce - Los Angeles
—
Blue corner
W1
Ryan Couture
12-5
Career record
Height
70"
Reach
73"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
30
In our database
4 fights · 3-1
Last 4
W
Strikeforce Challengers 19
—
L
Strikeforce Challengers 16
—
W
Strikeforce Challengers 14
—
W
Strikeforce Challengers 10
—