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Tim Means vs Bernardo Magalhaes

UFC on FUEL TV: Sanchez vs Ellenberger ·Omaha Civic Auditorium
Previous fight

Statlab take

baseline
Heavy favorite Confidence: High
Tim Means
Bernardo Magalhaes
74% 26%
Why
28
Age
Δ 3y
31

Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.

Statlab projections

Method classifier: 0.55 accuracy on 2083 fights
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Means: 83 sig / 0 TD · Magalhaes: 28 sig / 0 TD
Tim Means
Bernardo Magalhaes
39
Sig strikes landed
30
82
Sig strikes attempted
66
57
Total strikes landed
51
0.9
Takedowns landed
1.4
1.7
Takedowns attempted
3.2
0.40
Knockdowns
0.20
111s
Control time
146s
Method
Decision
45%
KO/TKO
37%
Submission
18%

Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).

Red corner

Tim Means

"The Dirty Bird"
0-0
Career record
Height
74"
Reach
75"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
28
Blue corner

Bernardo Magalhaes

"Trekko"
0-0
Career record
Height
69"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
31