Main
Flyweight
Joseph Benavidez vs Yasuhiro Urushitani
UFC on FX: Alves vs Kampmann
·Qudos Bank Arena
Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Joseph Benavidez
Yasuhiro Urushitani
85%
15%
Why
28
Age
Δ 8y
36
W2
Current streak
—
2
UFC fights in our DB
0
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 2
Benavidez: 18 sig / 1 TD ·
Urushitani: 8 sig / 0 TD
Joseph Benavidez
Yasuhiro Urushitani
48
Sig strikes landed
36
115
Sig strikes attempted
98
69
Total strikes landed
53
1.3
Takedowns landed
1.2
2.8
Takedowns attempted
2.9
0.30
Knockdowns
0.10
145s
Control time
113s
Method
Decision
58%
KO/TKO
28%
Submission
14%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W2
Joseph Benavidez
29-8
Career record
Height
64"
Reach
65"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
28
In our database
2 fights · 2-0
Last 2
W
UFC Live: Hardy vs Lytle
—
W
UFC 128: Shogun vs Jones
—
Blue corner
Yasuhiro Urushitani
0-0
Career record
Height
65"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
36