Statlab take
baseline
Lean
Confidence: High
Thiago Alves
Martin Kampmann
47%
53%
Why
70"
Reach
Δ 2"
72"
28
Age
Δ 2y
30
24-15
Career record
Δ 13 pp
21-7
W1
Current streak
W1
4
UFC fights in our DB
5
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Submission · Round 3
Alves: 62 sig / 2 TD ·
Kampmann: 47 sig / 1 TD
Thiago Alves
Martin Kampmann
41
Sig strikes landed
42
101
Sig strikes attempted
112
55
Total strikes landed
57
0.7
Takedowns landed
1.4
2.0
Takedowns attempted
4.5
0.40
Knockdowns
0.20
62s
Control time
155s
Method
Decision
62%
KO/TKO
30%
Submission
8%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W1
Thiago Alves
"Pitbull"
24-15
Career record
Height
69"
Reach
70"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
28
In our database
4 fights · 2-2
Last 4
W
UFC 138: Leben vs Munoz
—
L
UFC 130: Rampage vs Hamill
—
W
UFC 124: St-Pierre vs Koscheck 2
—
L
UFC 117: Silva vs Sonnen
—
Blue corner
W1
Martin Kampmann
"The Hitman"
21-7
Career record
Height
72"
Reach
72"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
30
In our database
5 fights · 3-2
Last 5
W
UFC 139: Shogun vs Henderson
—
L
UFC Live: Sanchez vs Kampmann
—
L
UFC 121: Lesnar vs Velasquez
—
W
UFC 115: Liddell vs Franklin
—
W
UFC 108: Evans vs Silva
—