Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Felipe Arantes
Antonio Carvalho
67%
33%
Why
73"
Reach
Δ 3"
70"
24
Age
Δ 9y
33
L1
Current streak
—
1
UFC fights in our DB
0
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Arantes: 53 sig / 0 TD ·
Carvalho: 37 sig / 0 TD
Felipe Arantes
Antonio Carvalho
34
Sig strikes landed
32
67
Sig strikes attempted
62
49
Total strikes landed
51
1.1
Takedowns landed
1.0
2.4
Takedowns attempted
2.2
0.30
Knockdowns
0.20
131s
Control time
141s
Method
Decision
36%
KO/TKO
38%
Submission
26%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L1
Felipe Arantes
"Sertanejo"
18-11-1
(2 NC)
Career record
Height
68"
Reach
73"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
24
In our database
1 fight · 0-1
Last 1
L
UFC 134: Silva vs Okami
—
Blue corner
Antonio Carvalho
"Pato"
0-0
Career record
Height
69"
Reach
70"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
33