Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Jose Aldo
Chad Mendes
85%
15%
Why
70"
Reach
Δ 4"
66"
25
Age
Δ 1y
27
33-10
Career record
Δ 2 pp
19-5
W2
Current streak
W2
2
UFC fights in our DB
2
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 1
Aldo: 11 sig / 0 TD ·
Mendes: 13 sig / 0 TD
Jose Aldo
Chad Mendes
53
Sig strikes landed
62
145
Sig strikes attempted
151
81
Total strikes landed
88
1.5
Takedowns landed
1.8
4.7
Takedowns attempted
6.3
0.20
Knockdowns
0.10
145s
Control time
132s
Method
Decision
59%
KO/TKO
24%
Submission
18%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W2
Jose Aldo
33-10
Career record
Height
67"
Reach
70"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
25
In our database
2 fights · 2-0
Last 2
W
UFC 136: Edgar vs Maynard 3
—
W
UFC 129: St-Pierre vs Shields
—
Blue corner
W2
Chad Mendes
"Money"
19-5
Career record
Height
66"
Reach
66"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
27
In our database
2 fights · 2-0
Last 2
W
UFC 133: Evans vs Ortiz 2
—
W
UFC 126: Silva vs Belfort
—