Prelims1
Lightweight
Anthony Njokuani vs Danny Castillo
UFC 141: Lesnar vs Overeem
·MGM Grand Garden Arena
Statlab take
baseline
Toss-up
Confidence: High
Anthony Njokuani
Danny Castillo
50%
50%
Why
76"
Reach
Δ 4"
71"
32
Age
Δ 1y
32
17-12
Career record
Δ 6 pp
18-10
W1
Current streak
W1
2
UFC fights in our DB
3
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Split · Round 3
Njokuani: 44 sig / 0 TD ·
Castillo: 33 sig / 6 TD
Anthony Njokuani
Danny Castillo
50
Sig strikes landed
50
107
Sig strikes attempted
111
76
Total strikes landed
82
0.2
Takedowns landed
2.7
0.7
Takedowns attempted
10.1
0.10
Knockdowns
0.20
63s
Control time
324s
Method
Decision
67%
KO/TKO
19%
Submission
14%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W1
Anthony Njokuani
"The Assassin"
17-12
(1 NC)
Career record
Height
73"
Reach
76"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
32
In our database
2 fights · 1-1
Last 2
W
UFC 132: Cruz vs Faber
—
L
UFC 128: Shogun vs Jones
—
Blue corner
W1
Danny Castillo
"Last Call"
18-10
Career record
Height
69"
Reach
71"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
32
In our database
3 fights · 2-1
Last 3
W
UFC 139: Shogun vs Henderson
—
L
UFC Live: Hardy vs Lytle
—
W
UFC Live: Sanchez vs Kampmann
—