Statlab take
baseline
Lean
Confidence: High
Gilbert Melendez
Jorge Masvidal
47%
53%
Why
73"
Reach
Δ 1"
74"
30
Age
Δ 3y
27
23-8
Career record
Δ 6 pp
36-17
W2
Current streak
W2
2
UFC fights in our DB
2
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 5
Melendez: 118 sig / 0 TD ·
Masvidal: 100 sig / 1 TD
Gilbert Melendez
Jorge Masvidal
52
Sig strikes landed
51
161
Sig strikes attempted
136
73
Total strikes landed
69
2.0
Takedowns landed
0.9
7.5
Takedowns attempted
2.7
0.10
Knockdowns
0.20
168s
Control time
59s
Method
Decision
71%
KO/TKO
20%
Submission
9%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W2
Gilbert Melendez
"El Nino"
23-8
Career record
Height
69"
Reach
73"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
30
In our database
2 fights · 2-0
Last 2
W
Strikeforce - Diaz vs. Daley
—
W
Strikeforce - Nashville
—
Blue corner
W2
Jorge Masvidal
"Gamebred"
36-17
Career record
Height
71"
Reach
74"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
27
In our database
2 fights · 2-0
Last 2
W
Strikeforce - Overeem vs. Werdum
—
W
Strikeforce - Feijao vs. Hender…
—