Statlab take
baseline
Edge
Confidence: High
Mitch Clarke
John Cholish
60%
40%
Why
73"
Reach
Δ 1"
74"
26
Age
Δ 2y
28
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 2
Clarke: 17 sig / 0 TD ·
Cholish: 55 sig / 1 TD
Mitch Clarke
John Cholish
37
Sig strikes landed
34
76
Sig strikes attempted
75
53
Total strikes landed
47
1.2
Takedowns landed
0.9
2.3
Takedowns attempted
1.7
0.30
Knockdowns
0.20
155s
Control time
123s
Method
Decision
44%
KO/TKO
39%
Submission
17%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
Mitch Clarke
"Danger Zone"
0-0
Career record
Height
70"
Reach
73"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
26
Blue corner
John Cholish
0-0
Career record
Height
71"
Reach
74"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
28