Back to The Ultimate Fighter: Team Bisping vs Team Miller Finale
Prelims1 Featherweight

Bryan Caraway vs Dustin Neace

The Ultimate Fighter: Team Bisping vs Team Miller Finale ·Pearl Concert Theater
Previous fight

Statlab take

baseline
Heavy favorite Confidence: High
Bryan Caraway
Dustin Neace
87% 13%
Why
68"
Reach
Δ 1"
69"
27
Age
Δ 2y
25

Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.

Statlab projections

Method classifier: 0.55 accuracy on 2083 fights
Actual result
Submission · Round 2
Caraway: 23 sig / 3 TD · Neace: 18 sig / 0 TD
Bryan Caraway
Dustin Neace
42
Sig strikes landed
44
105
Sig strikes attempted
105
60
Total strikes landed
60
1.2
Takedowns landed
0.9
2.7
Takedowns attempted
1.8
0.20
Knockdowns
0.30
139s
Control time
102s
Method
Decision
47%
KO/TKO
35%
Submission
18%

Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).

Red corner

Bryan Caraway

"Kid Lightning"
0-0
Career record
Height
68"
Reach
68"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
27
Blue corner

Dustin Neace

"The Beast"
0-0
Career record
Height
69"
Reach
69"
Age
25