Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Urijah Faber
Brian Bowles
84%
16%
Why
67"
Reach
Δ 4"
70"
32
Age
Δ 1y
31
35-12
Career record
Δ 4 pp
11-3
L1
Current streak
W2
2
UFC fights in our DB
2
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Submission · Round 2
Faber: 36 sig / 1 TD ·
Bowles: 13 sig / 0 TD
Urijah Faber
Brian Bowles
38
Sig strikes landed
36
100
Sig strikes attempted
100
58
Total strikes landed
54
1.3
Takedowns landed
1.4
3.4
Takedowns attempted
3.9
0.30
Knockdowns
0.20
169s
Control time
183s
Method
Decision
59%
KO/TKO
19%
Submission
22%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L1
Urijah Faber
"The California Kid"
35-12
Career record
Height
66"
Reach
67"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
33
In our database
2 fights · 1-1
Last 2
L
UFC 132: Cruz vs Faber
—
W
UFC 128: Shogun vs Jones
—
Blue corner
W2
Brian Bowles
11-3
Career record
Height
67"
Reach
71"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
31
In our database
2 fights · 2-0
Last 2
W
UFC 132: Cruz vs Faber
—
W
UFC Live: Sanchez vs Kampmann
—