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Mauricio Rua vs Dan Henderson

UFC 139: Shogun vs Henderson ·SAP Center at San Jose
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Statlab take

baseline
Heavy favorite Confidence: High
Mauricio Rua
Dan Henderson
67% 33%
Why
76"
Reach
Δ 2"
74"
30
Age
Δ 11y
41
W1
Current streak
—
3
UFC fights in our DB
0

Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.

Statlab projections

Method classifier: 0.55 accuracy on 2083 fights
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 5
Rua: 96 sig / 5 TD · Henderson: 77 sig / 1 TD
Mauricio Rua
Dan Henderson
37
Sig strikes landed
22
77
Sig strikes attempted
42
54
Total strikes landed
34
0.7
Takedowns landed
0.7
1.0
Takedowns attempted
1.8
0.50
Knockdowns
0.20
87s
Control time
98s
Method
Decision
28%
KO/TKO
57%
Submission
15%

Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).

Red corner
W1

Mauricio Rua

"Shogun"
28-14-1
Career record
Height
73"
Reach
76"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
30
In our database 3 fights · 2-1
Last 3
W UFC 134: Silva vs Okami
—
L UFC 128: Shogun vs Jones
—
W UFC 113: Machida vs Shogun 2
—
Blue corner

Dan Henderson

"Hendo"
0-0
Career record
Height
71"
Reach
74"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
41