Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Chris Cariaso
Vaughan Lee
72%
28%
Why
64"
Reach
Δ 2"
66"
30
Age
Δ 1y
29
L1
Current streak
—
2
UFC fights in our DB
0
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Split · Round 3
Cariaso: 52 sig / 2 TD ·
Lee: 29 sig / 4 TD
Chris Cariaso
Vaughan Lee
49
Sig strikes landed
45
111
Sig strikes attempted
108
69
Total strikes landed
59
1.2
Takedowns landed
0.9
3.1
Takedowns attempted
2.5
0.20
Knockdowns
0.20
138s
Control time
100s
Method
Decision
59%
KO/TKO
29%
Submission
12%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L1
Chris Cariaso
"Kamikaze"
17-9
Career record
Height
63"
Reach
65"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
30
In our database
2 fights · 1-1
Last 2
L
UFC 130: Rampage vs Hamill
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Fight for the …
—
Blue corner
Vaughan Lee
0-0
Career record
Height
66"
Reach
66"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
29