Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Josh Barnett
Sergei Kharitonov
70%
30%
Why
34
Age
Δ 3y
31
36-8
Career record
Δ 0 pp
27-6
W1
Current streak
W1
1
UFC fights in our DB
1
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Submission · Round 1
Barnett: 21 sig / 1 TD ·
Kharitonov: 9 sig / 0 TD
Josh Barnett
Sergei Kharitonov
8
Sig strikes landed
11
33
Sig strikes attempted
26
28
Total strikes landed
24
1.5
Takedowns landed
1.2
4.7
Takedowns attempted
0.9
0.00
Knockdowns
0.30
181s
Control time
66s
Method
Decision
16%
KO/TKO
69%
Submission
16%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W1
Josh Barnett
"The Warmaster"
36-8
Career record
Height
75"
Reach
78"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
34
In our database
1 fight · 1-0
Last 1
W
Strikeforce - Overeem vs. Werdum
—
Blue corner
W1
Sergei Kharitonov
27-6
Career record
Height
72"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
31
In our database
1 fight · 1-0
Last 1
W
Strikeforce - Fedor vs. Silva
—