Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Dan Hardy
Chris Lytle
71%
29%
Why
74"
Reach
Δ 6"
68"
29
Age
Δ 8y
37
25-11
Career record
Δ 13 pp
31-19-5
L3
Current streak
L1
3
UFC fights in our DB
4
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Submission · Round 3
Hardy: 61 sig / 1 TD ·
Lytle: 127 sig / 0 TD
Dan Hardy
Chris Lytle
37
Sig strikes landed
39
100
Sig strikes attempted
74
44
Total strikes landed
51
0.9
Takedowns landed
0.6
2.4
Takedowns attempted
1.8
0.10
Knockdowns
0.30
75s
Control time
120s
Method
Decision
20%
KO/TKO
22%
Submission
59%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L3
Dan Hardy
"The Outlaw"
25-11
(1 NC)
Career record
Height
72"
Reach
74"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
29
In our database
3 fights · 0-3
Last 3
L
UFC Fight Night: Nogueira vs Da…
—
L
UFC 120: Bisping vs Akiyama
—
L
UFC 111: St-Pierre vs Hardy
—
Blue corner
L1
Chris Lytle
"Lights Out"
31-19-5
Career record
Height
71"
Reach
68"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
37
In our database
4 fights · 3-1
Last 4
L
UFC 127: Penn vs Fitch
—
W
UFC 119: Mir vs Cro Cop
—
W
UFC 116: Lesnar vs Carwin
—
W
UFC 110: Nogueira vs Velasquez
—