Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Trevor Prangley
Tatsuya Mizuno
83%
17%
Why
39
Age
Δ 9y
30
—
Current streak
L2
0
UFC fights in our DB
3
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 1
Prangley: 10 sig / 1 TD ·
Mizuno: 15 sig / 0 TD
Trevor Prangley
Tatsuya Mizuno
32
Sig strikes landed
27
58
Sig strikes attempted
69
50
Total strikes landed
37
0.8
Takedowns landed
1.4
1.9
Takedowns attempted
3.0
0.30
Knockdowns
0.40
146s
Control time
136s
Method
Decision
36%
KO/TKO
44%
Submission
21%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
Trevor Prangley
0-0
Career record
Height
73"
Reach
75"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
39
Blue corner
L2
Tatsuya Mizuno
16-13-1
Career record
Height
73"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
30
In our database
3 fights · 1-2
Last 3
L
Dynamite!! 2010
—
L
DREAM 16
—
W
DREAM 15
—