Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Ovince Saint Preux
Joe Cason
74%
26%
Why
28
Age
Δ 5y
24
W4
Current streak
—
4
UFC fights in our DB
0
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 1
Saint Preux: 13 sig / 0 TD ·
Cason: 5 sig / 0 TD
Ovince Saint Preux
Joe Cason
44
Sig strikes landed
37
101
Sig strikes attempted
102
75
Total strikes landed
52
1.0
Takedowns landed
2.0
2.4
Takedowns attempted
3.4
0.50
Knockdowns
0.10
117s
Control time
195s
Method
Decision
48%
KO/TKO
40%
Submission
13%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W4
Ovince Saint Preux
28-18
Career record
Height
75"
Reach
80"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
28
In our database
4 fights · 4-0
Last 4
W
Strikeforce Challengers 13
—
W
Strikeforce - Henderson vs. Bab…
—
W
Strikeforce Challengers 12
—
W
Strikeforce - Nashville
—
Blue corner
Joe Cason
0-0
Career record
Height
75"
Age
24