Statlab take
baseline
Edge
Confidence: High
Lumumba Sayers
Derek Brunson
43%
57%
Why
33
Age
Δ 6y
28
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Current streak
W1
0
UFC fights in our DB
1
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Submission · Round 1
Lumumba Sayers
Derek Brunson
36
Sig strikes landed
46
93
Sig strikes attempted
114
38
Total strikes landed
62
0.7
Takedowns landed
1.2
1.9
Takedowns attempted
2.5
0.00
Knockdowns
0.50
87s
Control time
143s
Method
Decision
39%
KO/TKO
47%
Submission
14%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
Lumumba Sayers
0-0
Career record
Height
72"
Age
33
Blue corner
W1
Derek Brunson
"The One"
24-9
Career record
Height
73"
Reach
77"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
28
In our database
1 fight · 1-0
Last 1
W
Strikeforce Challengers 16
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