Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Bryan Humes
Gabriel Salinas-Jones
88%
12%
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Submission · Round 3
Bryan Humes
Gabriel Salinas-Jones
41
Sig strikes landed
43
93
Sig strikes attempted
98
58
Total strikes landed
55
3.4
Takedowns landed
0.6
4.4
Takedowns attempted
1.0
0.30
Knockdowns
0.20
174s
Control time
105s
Method
Decision
38%
KO/TKO
48%
Submission
14%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
Bryan Humes
0-0
Career record
Blue corner
Gabriel Salinas-Jones
0-0
Career record
Height
73"
Age
27