Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Rashad Evans
Tito Ortiz
77%
23%
Why
75"
Reach
Δ 1"
74"
32
Age
Δ 5y
36
20-8-1
Career record
Δ 8 pp
20-12-1
W2
Current streak
W1
2
UFC fights in our DB
2
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 2
Evans: 48 sig / 1 TD ·
Ortiz: 5 sig / 1 TD
Rashad Evans
Tito Ortiz
33
Sig strikes landed
23
75
Sig strikes attempted
60
64
Total strikes landed
32
2.5
Takedowns landed
0.5
4.7
Takedowns attempted
0.9
0.20
Knockdowns
0.00
219s
Control time
31s
Method
Decision
27%
KO/TKO
59%
Submission
14%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W2
Rashad Evans
"Suga"
20-8-1
Career record
Height
72"
Reach
75"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
32
In our database
2 fights · 2-0
Last 2
W
UFC 114: Rampage vs Evans
—
W
UFC 108: Evans vs Silva
—
Blue corner
W1
Tito Ortiz
"The People's Champ"
20-12-1
Career record
Height
75"
Reach
74"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
37
In our database
2 fights · 1-1
Last 2
W
UFC 132: Cruz vs Faber
—
L
UFC 121: Lesnar vs Velasquez
—