Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Trevor Smith
Keith Berry
78%
22%
Why
30
Age
Δ 7y
24
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Submission · Round 2
Trevor Smith
Keith Berry
50
Sig strikes landed
42
109
Sig strikes attempted
104
65
Total strikes landed
57
1.0
Takedowns landed
1.0
2.1
Takedowns attempted
1.6
0.20
Knockdowns
0.40
157s
Control time
119s
Method
Decision
35%
KO/TKO
53%
Submission
12%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
Trevor Smith
"Hot Sauce"
0-0
Career record
Height
75"
Reach
75"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
31
Blue corner
Keith Berry
0-0
Career record
Height
73"
Age
24