Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Lorenz Larkin
Gian Villante
83%
17%
Why
72"
Reach
Δ 4"
76"
25
Age
Δ 1y
26
19-6
Career record
Δ 23 pp
17-15
W1
Current streak
L1
1
UFC fights in our DB
1
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Larkin: 50 sig / 1 TD ·
Villante: 8 sig / 1 TD
Lorenz Larkin
Gian Villante
45
Sig strikes landed
23
71
Sig strikes attempted
83
41
Total strikes landed
32
0.5
Takedowns landed
1.4
1.1
Takedowns attempted
3.3
0.70
Knockdowns
0.10
81s
Control time
50s
Method
Decision
25%
KO/TKO
66%
Submission
9%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W1
Lorenz Larkin
"The Monsoon"
19-6
(1 NC)
Career record
Height
71"
Reach
73"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
25
In our database
1 fight · 1-0
Last 1
W
Strikeforce Challengers 15
—
Blue corner
L1
Gian Villante
17-15
Career record
Height
75"
Reach
76"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
26
In our database
1 fight · 0-1
Last 1
L
Strikeforce - Fedor vs. Silva
—