Statlab take
baseline
Clear edge
Confidence: High
Ryan Couture
Matt Ricehouse
63%
37%
Why
29
Age
Δ 4y
24
12-5
Career record
Δ 17 pp
7-1
W2
Current streak
W2
2
UFC fights in our DB
2
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Couture: 67 sig / 0 TD ·
Ricehouse: 63 sig / 2 TD
Ryan Couture
Matt Ricehouse
36
Sig strikes landed
43
91
Sig strikes attempted
77
41
Total strikes landed
38
0.5
Takedowns landed
3.4
0.9
Takedowns attempted
6.0
0.40
Knockdowns
0.30
49s
Control time
176s
Method
Decision
23%
KO/TKO
26%
Submission
51%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W2
Ryan Couture
12-5
Career record
Height
70"
Reach
73"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
29
In our database
2 fights · 2-0
Last 2
W
Strikeforce Challengers 14
—
W
Strikeforce Challengers 10
—
Blue corner
W2
Matt Ricehouse
7-1
Career record
Age
24
In our database
2 fights · 2-0
Last 2
W
Strikeforce - Henderson vs. Bab…
—
W
Strikeforce - Heavy Artillery
—