Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Takeshi Inoue
Koichiro Matsumoto
73%
27%
Why
31
Age
Δ 6y
25
L1
Current streak
—
1
UFC fights in our DB
0
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 1
Inoue: 24 sig / 0 TD ·
Matsumoto: 13 sig / 0 TD
Takeshi Inoue
Koichiro Matsumoto
42
Sig strikes landed
49
100
Sig strikes attempted
97
77
Total strikes landed
90
1.2
Takedowns landed
1.4
1.8
Takedowns attempted
2.9
0.40
Knockdowns
0.20
132s
Control time
163s
Method
Decision
42%
KO/TKO
35%
Submission
23%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L1
Takeshi Inoue
"Lion"
23-11
Career record
Height
68"
Age
31
In our database
1 fight · 0-1
Last 1
L
DREAM 16
—
Blue corner
Koichiro Matsumoto
0-0
Career record
Height
67"
Age
25