Statlab take
baseline
Lean
Confidence: High
Kenji Osawa
Takafumi Otsuka
47%
53%
Why
35
Age
Δ 10y
25
21-11-2
Career record
Δ 4 pp
22-14-2
W1
Current streak
L1
1
UFC fights in our DB
1
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Split · Round 2
Osawa: 31 sig / 0 TD ·
Otsuka: 10 sig / 4 TD
Kenji Osawa
Takafumi Otsuka
44
Sig strikes landed
38
121
Sig strikes attempted
120
62
Total strikes landed
54
0.7
Takedowns landed
1.4
2.4
Takedowns attempted
3.2
0.50
Knockdowns
0.70
144s
Control time
127s
Method
Decision
57%
KO/TKO
34%
Submission
9%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W1
Kenji Osawa
21-11-2
Career record
Height
67"
Reach
66"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
35
In our database
1 fight · 1-0
Last 1
W
DREAM 14
—
Blue corner
L1
Takafumi Otsuka
22-14-2
Career record
Height
66"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
25
In our database
1 fight · 0-1
Last 1
L
DREAM 14
—