Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Yusaku Nakamura
Atsushi Yamamoto
86%
14%
Why
25
Age
Δ 6y
31
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 1
Nakamura: 15 sig / 0 TD ·
Yamamoto: 32 sig / 1 TD
Yusaku Nakamura
Atsushi Yamamoto
50
Sig strikes landed
45
101
Sig strikes attempted
102
81
Total strikes landed
77
1.3
Takedowns landed
1.2
2.1
Takedowns attempted
1.8
0.20
Knockdowns
0.20
178s
Control time
168s
Method
Decision
51%
KO/TKO
28%
Submission
21%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
Yusaku Nakamura
0-0
Career record
Height
65"
Age
25
Blue corner
Atsushi Yamamoto
0-0
Career record
Height
66"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
31