Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Yoshiro Maeda
Hideo Tokoro
87%
13%
Why
30
Age
Δ 4y
34
35-17-5
Career record
Δ 8 pp
35-29-2
L2
Current streak
W1
2
UFC fights in our DB
3
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 2
Maeda: 40 sig / 0 TD ·
Tokoro: 33 sig / 1 TD
Yoshiro Maeda
Hideo Tokoro
30
Sig strikes landed
37
74
Sig strikes attempted
88
53
Total strikes landed
39
1.0
Takedowns landed
1.3
3.2
Takedowns attempted
2.9
0.50
Knockdowns
0.60
165s
Control time
112s
Method
Decision
36%
KO/TKO
28%
Submission
36%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L2
Yoshiro Maeda
35-17-5
Career record
Height
67"
Reach
68"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
30
In our database
2 fights · 0-2
Last 2
L
DREAM 14
—
L
DREAM 13
—
Blue corner
W1
Hideo Tokoro
35-29-2
Career record
Height
67"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
34
In our database
3 fights · 1-2
Last 3
W
Dynamite!! 2010
—
L
DREAM 16
—
L
DREAM 14
—