Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Shinya Aoki
Rich Clementi
87%
13%
Why
28
Age
Δ 7y
35
W2
Current streak
—
2
UFC fights in our DB
0
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Submission · Round 2
Aoki: 24 sig / 3 TD ·
Clementi: 3 sig / 0 TD
Shinya Aoki
Rich Clementi
27
Sig strikes landed
16
67
Sig strikes attempted
41
35
Total strikes landed
29
1.9
Takedowns landed
1.5
2.2
Takedowns attempted
2.5
0.50
Knockdowns
0.10
135s
Control time
126s
Method
Decision
21%
KO/TKO
45%
Submission
34%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W2
Shinya Aoki
"Tobikan Judan"
40-7
(1 NC)
Career record
Height
71"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
28
In our database
2 fights · 2-0
Last 2
W
DREAM 16
—
W
DREAM 15
—
Blue corner
Rich Clementi
"No Love"
0-0
Career record
Height
69"
Reach
73"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
35