Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Brad Tavares
Aaron Simpson
78%
22%
Why
74"
Reach
Δ 1"
73"
24
Age
Δ 14y
37
22-13
Career record
Δ 9 pp
13-5
W2
Current streak
W1
2
UFC fights in our DB
4
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Tavares: 13 sig / 1 TD ·
Simpson: 43 sig / 2 TD
Brad Tavares
Aaron Simpson
32
Sig strikes landed
19
66
Sig strikes attempted
34
54
Total strikes landed
41
1.5
Takedowns landed
1.1
4.4
Takedowns attempted
5.2
0.40
Knockdowns
0.00
184s
Control time
211s
Method
Decision
65%
KO/TKO
22%
Submission
13%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W2
Brad Tavares
22-13
Career record
Height
73"
Reach
74"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
24
In our database
2 fights · 2-0
Last 2
W
UFC 125: Resolution
—
W
The Ultimate Fighter: Team Lidd…
—
Blue corner
W1
Aaron Simpson
"A-Train"
13-5
Career record
Height
72"
Reach
73"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
37
In our database
4 fights · 2-2
Last 4
W
UFC Fight Night: Nogueira vs Da…
—
L
UFC 123: Rampage vs Machida
—
L
The Ultimate Fighter: Team Lidd…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Maynard vs Diaz
—