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Main Welterweight

Ramsey Nijem vs Tony Ferguson

The Ultimate Fighter: Team Lesnar vs Team dos Santos Finale ·Pearl Concert Theater
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Statlab take

baseline
Clear edge Confidence: High
Ramsey Nijem
Tony Ferguson
36% 64%
Why
75"
Reach
Δ 2"
76"
23
Age
Δ 4y
27

Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.

Statlab projections

Method classifier: 0.55 accuracy on 2083 fights
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 1
Nijem: 12 sig / 0 TD · Ferguson: 21 sig / 2 TD
Ramsey Nijem
Tony Ferguson
33
Sig strikes landed
39
76
Sig strikes attempted
81
48
Total strikes landed
58
0.6
Takedowns landed
1.1
1.9
Takedowns attempted
2.2
0.30
Knockdowns
0.30
122s
Control time
159s
Method
Decision
45%
KO/TKO
41%
Submission
14%

Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).

Red corner

Ramsey Nijem

0-0
Career record
Height
71"
Reach
75"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
23
Blue corner

Tony Ferguson

"El Cucuy"
0-0
Career record
Height
71"
Reach
77"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
27