Back to The Ultimate Fighter: Team Lesnar vs Team dos Santos Finale
Prelims1 Bantamweight

Reuben Duran vs Francisco Rivera

The Ultimate Fighter: Team Lesnar vs Team dos Santos Finale ·Pearl Concert Theater
Previous fight

Statlab take

baseline
Edge Confidence: High
Reuben Duran
Francisco Rivera
60% 40%
Why
71"
Reach
Δ 1"
70"
28
Age
Δ 2y
30
L1
Current streak
—
1
UFC fights in our DB
0

Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.

Statlab projections

Method classifier: 0.55 accuracy on 2083 fights
Actual result
Submission · Round 3
Duran: 42 sig / 2 TD · Rivera: 22 sig / 0 TD
Reuben Duran
Francisco Rivera
47
Sig strikes landed
53
97
Sig strikes attempted
112
60
Total strikes landed
68
0.8
Takedowns landed
1.2
1.7
Takedowns attempted
2.9
0.10
Knockdowns
0.20
117s
Control time
134s
Method
Decision
51%
KO/TKO
30%
Submission
19%

Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).

Red corner
L1

Reuben Duran

11-8-1
Career record
Height
67"
Reach
71"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
28
In our database 1 fight · 0-1
Last 1
L UFC Live: Sanchez vs Kampmann
—
Blue corner

Francisco Rivera

"Cisco"
0-0
Career record
Height
68"
Reach
70"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
30