Back to Strikeforce - Overeem vs. Werdum
Catch Weight

Brian Melancon vs Isaac Vallie-Flagg

Strikeforce - Overeem vs. Werdum ·American Airlines Center
Previous fight

Statlab take

baseline
Toss-up Confidence: High
Brian Melancon
Isaac Vallie-Flagg
52% 48%
Why
29
Age
Δ 4y
33

Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.

Statlab projections

Method classifier: 0.55 accuracy on 2083 fights
Actual result
Decision - Split · Round 3
Brian Melancon
Isaac Vallie-Flagg
37
Sig strikes landed
40
77
Sig strikes attempted
81
49
Total strikes landed
59
0.8
Takedowns landed
1.2
1.8
Takedowns attempted
2.1
0.30
Knockdowns
0.20
119s
Control time
213s
Method
Decision
48%
KO/TKO
32%
Submission
20%

Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).

Red corner

Brian Melancon

0-0
Career record
Height
68"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
29
Blue corner

Isaac Vallie-Flagg

0-0
Career record
Height
68"
Reach
70"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
33