Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Casey Ryan
Paul Song
85%
15%
Why
24
Age
Δ 0y
24
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Submission · Round 1
Casey Ryan
Paul Song
43
Sig strikes landed
41
100
Sig strikes attempted
98
60
Total strikes landed
51
0.9
Takedowns landed
0.8
1.7
Takedowns attempted
2.2
0.40
Knockdowns
0.20
137s
Control time
132s
Method
Decision
41%
KO/TKO
46%
Submission
13%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
Casey Ryan
0-0
Career record
Age
24
Blue corner
Paul Song
0-0
Career record
Age
24