Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Joe Stevenson
Danny Castillo
80%
20%
Why
70"
Reach
Δ 1"
71"
29
Age
Δ 3y
32
L2
Current streak
—
2
UFC fights in our DB
0
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Stevenson: 12 sig / 2 TD ·
Castillo: 55 sig / 5 TD
Joe Stevenson
Danny Castillo
29
Sig strikes landed
33
67
Sig strikes attempted
71
45
Total strikes landed
49
1.8
Takedowns landed
0.5
4.4
Takedowns attempted
1.3
0.20
Knockdowns
0.30
177s
Control time
76s
Method
Decision
49%
KO/TKO
32%
Submission
19%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L2
Joe Stevenson
"Daddy"
33-17
Career record
Height
67"
Reach
70"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
29
In our database
2 fights · 0-2
Last 2
L
UFC 124: St-Pierre vs Koscheck 2
—
L
UFC 110: Nogueira vs Velasquez
—
Blue corner
Danny Castillo
"Last Call"
0-0
Career record
Height
69"
Reach
71"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
32