Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
David Branch
Rousimar Palhares
76%
24%
Why
78"
Reach
Δ 7"
71"
29
Age
Δ 2y
31
23-6
Career record
Δ 11 pp
19-9
W2
Current streak
L1
3
UFC fights in our DB
2
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Submission · Round 2
Branch: 6 sig / 1 TD ·
Palhares: 2 sig / 0 TD
David Branch
Rousimar Palhares
24
Sig strikes landed
16
50
Sig strikes attempted
43
44
Total strikes landed
44
1.6
Takedowns landed
2.1
2.7
Takedowns attempted
4.2
0.20
Knockdowns
0.10
293s
Control time
132s
Method
Decision
22%
KO/TKO
15%
Submission
63%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W2
David Branch
23-6
Career record
Height
73"
Reach
78"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
29
In our database
3 fights · 2-1
Last 3
W
The Ultimate Fighter: Team GSP …
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Marquardt vs P…
—
L
UFC 116: Lesnar vs Carwin
—
Blue corner
L1
Rousimar Palhares
"Toquinho"
19-9
Career record
Height
68"
Reach
71"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
31
In our database
2 fights · 1-1
Last 2
L
UFC Fight Night: Marquardt vs P…
—
W
UFC 111: St-Pierre vs Hardy
—