Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Takeya Mizugaki
Reuben Duran
71%
29%
Why
70"
Reach
Δ 2"
71"
27
Age
Δ 0y
28
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Split · Round 3
Mizugaki: 43 sig / 4 TD ·
Duran: 67 sig / 0 TD
Takeya Mizugaki
Reuben Duran
40
Sig strikes landed
34
83
Sig strikes attempted
76
58
Total strikes landed
47
1.2
Takedowns landed
0.9
2.3
Takedowns attempted
2.0
0.40
Knockdowns
0.20
156s
Control time
157s
Method
Decision
44%
KO/TKO
36%
Submission
20%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
Takeya Mizugaki
0-0
Career record
Height
67"
Reach
70"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
27
Blue corner
Reuben Duran
0-0
Career record
Height
67"
Reach
71"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
28