Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Diego Sanchez
Martin Kampmann
68%
32%
Why
72"
Reach
72"
29
Age
Δ 0y
29
32-13
Career record
Δ 0 pp
20-8
W1
Current streak
L1
2
UFC fights in our DB
3
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Sanchez: 51 sig / 1 TD ·
Kampmann: 77 sig / 0 TD
Diego Sanchez
Martin Kampmann
24
Sig strikes landed
31
73
Sig strikes attempted
70
54
Total strikes landed
54
1.5
Takedowns landed
1.6
5.4
Takedowns attempted
3.6
0.10
Knockdowns
0.30
173s
Control time
191s
Method
Decision
68%
KO/TKO
20%
Submission
12%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W1
Diego Sanchez
"Nightmare"
32-13
Career record
Height
70"
Reach
72"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
29
In our database
2 fights · 1-1
Last 2
W
UFC 121: Lesnar vs Velasquez
—
L
UFC 114: Rampage vs Evans
—
Blue corner
L1
Martin Kampmann
"The Hitman"
20-8
Career record
Height
72"
Reach
72"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
29
In our database
3 fights · 2-1
Last 3
L
UFC 121: Lesnar vs Velasquez
—
W
UFC 115: Liddell vs Franklin
—
W
UFC 108: Evans vs Silva
—