Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Kevin Roddy
Jason McLean
77%
23%
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Kevin Roddy
Jason McLean
44
Sig strikes landed
46
100
Sig strikes attempted
100
59
Total strikes landed
61
0.9
Takedowns landed
1.3
1.5
Takedowns attempted
2.3
0.30
Knockdowns
0.20
140s
Control time
124s
Method
Decision
41%
KO/TKO
41%
Submission
18%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
Kevin Roddy
"K-Rod"
0-0
Career record
Height
71"
Blue corner
Jason McLean
0-0
Career record
Height
65"
Age
34