Statlab take
baseline
Edge
Confidence: High
Dan Miller
Nate Marquardt
39%
61%
Why
74"
Reach
74"
30
Age
Δ 2y
32
15-8
Career record
Δ 4 pp
35-20-2
W2
Current streak
L1
4
UFC fights in our DB
3
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Miller: 10 sig / 2 TD ·
Marquardt: 47 sig / 3 TD
Dan Miller
Nate Marquardt
29
Sig strikes landed
32
74
Sig strikes attempted
79
45
Total strikes landed
48
1.4
Takedowns landed
1.2
4.8
Takedowns attempted
3.5
0.10
Knockdowns
0.20
158s
Control time
143s
Method
Decision
50%
KO/TKO
28%
Submission
23%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W2
Dan Miller
15-8
(1 NC)
Career record
Height
73"
Reach
74"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
30
In our database
4 fights · 2-2
Last 4
W
UFC 124: St-Pierre vs Koscheck 2
—
W
UFC 118: Edgar vs Penn 2
—
L
UFC 114: Rampage vs Evans
—
L
UFC 109: Relentless
—
Blue corner
L1
Nate Marquardt
"The Great"
35-20-2
Career record
Height
72"
Reach
74"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
32
In our database
3 fights · 1-2
Last 3
L
UFC 122: Marquardt vs Okami
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Marquardt vs P…
—
L
UFC 109: Relentless
—