🏆 Title fight
Main
Light Heavyweight
Mauricio Rua vs Jon Jones
UFC 128: Shogun vs Jones
·Prudential Center
Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Mauricio Rua
Jon Jones
19%
81%
Why
76"
Reach
Δ 8"
84"
29
Age
Δ 6y
24
28-14-1
Career record
Δ 32 pp
29-1
W1
Current streak
W3
1
UFC fights in our DB
3
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 3
Rua: 9 sig / 0 TD ·
Jones: 75 sig / 3 TD
Mauricio Rua
Jon Jones
8
Sig strikes landed
34
21
Sig strikes attempted
55
13
Total strikes landed
52
0.0
Takedowns landed
1.9
0.8
Takedowns attempted
4.9
0.20
Knockdowns
0.20
48s
Control time
286s
Method
Decision
13%
KO/TKO
30%
Submission
57%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W1
Mauricio Rua
"Shogun"
28-14-1
Career record
Height
73"
Reach
76"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
29
In our database
1 fight · 1-0
Last 1
W
UFC 113: Machida vs Shogun 2
—
Blue corner
W3
Jon Jones
"Bones"
29-1
(1 NC)
Career record
Height
76"
Reach
85"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
24
In our database
3 fights · 3-0
Last 3
W
UFC 126: Silva vs Belfort
—
W
UFC Live: Jones vs Matyushenko
—
W
UFC Live: Vera vs Jones
—