Catch Weight
Jenna Castillo vs Charlene Gellner
Strikeforce - Diaz vs. Cyborg
·SAP Center at San Jose
Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Jenna Castillo
Charlene Gellner
85%
15%
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 2
Castillo: 29 sig / 1 TD ·
Gellner: 18 sig / 0 TD
Jenna Castillo
Charlene Gellner
41
Sig strikes landed
41
124
Sig strikes attempted
123
94
Total strikes landed
65
1.5
Takedowns landed
0.5
2.9
Takedowns attempted
1.5
0.20
Knockdowns
0.20
194s
Control time
145s
Method
Decision
31%
KO/TKO
39%
Submission
30%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
Jenna Castillo
0-0
Career record
Height
62"
Age
29
Blue corner
Charlene Gellner
"Princess"
0-0
Career record
Height
62"