Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Brian Ebersole
Chris Lytle
94%
6%
Why
73"
Reach
Δ 5"
68"
30
Age
Δ 6y
36
—
Current streak
W3
0
UFC fights in our DB
3
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Ebersole: 32 sig / 4 TD ·
Lytle: 24 sig / 0 TD
Brian Ebersole
Chris Lytle
43
Sig strikes landed
45
108
Sig strikes attempted
100
59
Total strikes landed
63
1.0
Takedowns landed
0.8
2.1
Takedowns attempted
2.3
0.20
Knockdowns
0.10
99s
Control time
145s
Method
Decision
37%
KO/TKO
27%
Submission
36%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
Brian Ebersole
"Bad Boy"
0-0
Career record
Height
72"
Reach
73"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
30
Blue corner
W3
Chris Lytle
"Lights Out"
32-18-5
Career record
Height
71"
Reach
68"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
37
In our database
3 fights · 3-0
Last 3
W
UFC 119: Mir vs Cro Cop
—
W
UFC 116: Lesnar vs Carwin
—
W
UFC 110: Nogueira vs Velasquez
—