Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
BJ Penn
Jon Fitch
11%
89%
Why
70"
Reach
Δ 4"
74"
32
Age
Δ 1y
33
17-14-2
Career record
Δ 28 pp
31-7-1
W1
Current streak
W2
3
UFC fights in our DB
2
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Majority · Round 3
Penn: 12 sig / 2 TD ·
Fitch: 47 sig / 4 TD
BJ Penn
Jon Fitch
23
Sig strikes landed
59
66
Sig strikes attempted
101
49
Total strikes landed
72
1.3
Takedowns landed
1.8
1.7
Takedowns attempted
4.5
0.10
Knockdowns
0.30
102s
Control time
252s
Method
Decision
78%
KO/TKO
12%
Submission
10%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W1
BJ Penn
"The Prodigy"
17-14-2
Career record
Height
69"
Reach
70"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
32
In our database
3 fights · 1-2
Last 3
W
UFC 123: Rampage vs Machida
—
L
UFC 118: Edgar vs Penn 2
—
L
UFC 112: Invincible
—
Blue corner
W2
Jon Fitch
31-7-1
(1 NC)
Career record
Height
72"
Reach
74"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
33
In our database
2 fights · 2-0
Last 2
W
UFC 117: Silva vs Sonnen
—
W
UFC 111: St-Pierre vs Hardy
—