Statlab take
baseline
Toss-up
Confidence: High
Mike Pierce
Kenny Robertson
51%
49%
Why
71"
Reach
Δ 3"
74"
30
Age
Δ 3y
27
W2
Current streak
—
2
UFC fights in our DB
0
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 2
Pierce: 19 sig / 2 TD ·
Robertson: 12 sig / 0 TD
Mike Pierce
Kenny Robertson
29
Sig strikes landed
18
52
Sig strikes attempted
38
53
Total strikes landed
43
2.3
Takedowns landed
1.2
4.7
Takedowns attempted
0.8
0.20
Knockdowns
0.30
225s
Control time
120s
Method
Decision
29%
KO/TKO
51%
Submission
20%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W2
Mike Pierce
18-7
Career record
Height
68"
Reach
71"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
30
In our database
2 fights · 2-0
Last 2
W
UFC 118: Edgar vs Penn 2
—
W
UFC Live: Vera vs Jones
—
Blue corner
Kenny Robertson
0-0
Career record
Height
70"
Reach
74"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
27