Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Stoney Hale
Gerric Hayes
85%
15%
Why
31
Age
Δ 1y
30
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Split · Round 3
Stoney Hale
Gerric Hayes
45
Sig strikes landed
40
106
Sig strikes attempted
101
59
Total strikes landed
51
1.1
Takedowns landed
0.9
2.0
Takedowns attempted
1.6
0.20
Knockdowns
0.30
159s
Control time
140s
Method
Decision
39%
KO/TKO
46%
Submission
15%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
Stoney Hale
"The Skuller"
0-0
Career record
Height
72"
Age
31
Blue corner
Gerric Hayes
0-0
Career record
Height
70"
Age
30