Back to Strikeforce Challengers 13
Light Heavyweight

Rhadi Ferguson vs John Richard

Strikeforce Challengers 13 ·Nashville Municipal Auditorium

Statlab take

baseline
Heavy favorite Confidence: High
Rhadi Ferguson
John Richard
77% 23%

Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.

Statlab projections

Method classifier: 0.55 accuracy on 2083 fights
Actual result
Submission · Round 2
Rhadi Ferguson
John Richard
37
Sig strikes landed
37
91
Sig strikes attempted
94
75
Total strikes landed
50
1.5
Takedowns landed
3.3
2.9
Takedowns attempted
4.5
0.30
Knockdowns
0.40
133s
Control time
149s
Method
Decision
18%
KO/TKO
41%
Submission
41%

Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).

Red corner

Rhadi Ferguson

0-0
Career record
Height
67"
Blue corner

John Richard

0-0
Career record
Age
29