Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Dustin Ortiz
Matt Horning
97%
3%
Why
22
Age
Δ 12y
34
W1
Current streak
—
1
UFC fights in our DB
0
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 3
Dustin Ortiz
Matt Horning
53
Sig strikes landed
39
126
Sig strikes attempted
97
67
Total strikes landed
44
1.2
Takedowns landed
1.2
1.9
Takedowns attempted
1.9
0.40
Knockdowns
0.10
150s
Control time
132s
Method
Decision
52%
KO/TKO
27%
Submission
21%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W1
Dustin Ortiz
20-8
Career record
Height
65"
Reach
65"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
22
In our database
1 fight · 1-0
Last 1
W
Strikeforce - Nashville
—
Blue corner
Matt Horning
"Horndog"
0-0
Career record
Height
64"
Age
34