Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Hideo Tokoro
Kazuhisa Watanabe
81%
19%
Why
33
Age
Δ 6y
28
L2
Current streak
—
2
UFC fights in our DB
0
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Submission · Round 3
Tokoro: 12 sig / 6 TD ·
Watanabe: 8 sig / 0 TD
Hideo Tokoro
Kazuhisa Watanabe
44
Sig strikes landed
58
102
Sig strikes attempted
85
44
Total strikes landed
55
1.7
Takedowns landed
0.7
1.7
Takedowns attempted
3.3
0.50
Knockdowns
0.30
94s
Control time
141s
Method
Decision
55%
KO/TKO
21%
Submission
25%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L2
Hideo Tokoro
34-30-2
Career record
Height
67"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
33
In our database
2 fights · 0-2
Last 2
L
DREAM 16
—
L
DREAM 14
—
Blue corner
Kazuhisa Watanabe
0-0
Career record
Height
66"
Age
28