Statlab take
baseline
Lean
Confidence: High
Kris McCray
Carlos Eduardo Rocha
54%
46%
Why
76"
Reach
Δ 3"
73"
29
Age
Δ 0y
29
L1
Current streak
—
1
UFC fights in our DB
0
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Submission · Round 1
McCray: 3 sig / 2 TD ·
Rocha: 2 sig / 0 TD
Kris McCray
Carlos Eduardo Rocha
30
Sig strikes landed
38
72
Sig strikes attempted
78
41
Total strikes landed
56
1.5
Takedowns landed
1.4
2.1
Takedowns attempted
3.1
0.30
Knockdowns
0.40
168s
Control time
157s
Method
Decision
38%
KO/TKO
35%
Submission
27%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L1
Kris McCray
"Savage"
8-6
Career record
Height
72"
Reach
76"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
29
In our database
1 fight · 0-1
Last 1
L
The Ultimate Fighter: Team Lidd…
—
Blue corner
Carlos Eduardo Rocha
"Ta Danado"
0-0
Career record
Height
70"
Reach
73"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
29